Appointment No-Show Seat Risk Calculator

Method and input definitions

If each booked attendee independently shows with probability 1 − no-show rate, attendance X is binomial. The calculator sums exact binomial probabilities for P(X > seats) and reports expected attendance and the chance attendance fits.

Worked example

With 8 bookings, 6 seats, and a 25% no-show chance, X ~ Binomial(8, 0.75). Exact P(X > 6) = 0.3670806885 (36.71%), and expected attendance is 6.

Assumptions and limits

The model assumes identical, independent show probabilities for all bookings. It does not recommend a booking count or account for correlated travel/weather effects, late arrivals, or different appointment lengths.

Inputs are bounded to finite values shown in the form. Displayed results are rounded for readability (probability percentages and proportion fractions to four, other measures to two decimal places); whole-count outputs remain exact. A changed field clears a prior result so an outdated estimate is not presented as current.

References and related tools

These are direct calculations over user-supplied values; no external empirical benchmark is assumed.

• Conference Session Seating Capacity Calculator
• Event Registration Arrival Queue Calculator

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